Introduction:
Our aim was to assess the time required to recover the hypothetical surgical capacity of urological procedures that were suspended due to lockdowns caused by the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in 2020 and 2021 in Poland, to indicate the most affected procedures, and to estimate the recovery time after a likely fourth lockdown.

Material and methods:
The data aggregates contained the number of patients who underwent specific urological procedures classified in the ICD-9, performed from January 2009 to October 2019, acquired in granulation per month and per single voivodeship, and obtained by healthcare providers such as hospitals, ambulatory units, and primary care facilities. Using the model, we obtained the time required to discharge the excessive load on the healthcare system and the median wait time in the post-lockdown period. We validated the model based on the data aggregates from March to October 2020.

Results:
Leaving the capacity of the most affected procedures unaltered, or increasing it by 20%, would not reduce the backlog of patients waiting to receive care after the third lockdown. The consequences of a feasible fourth lockdown would cause the necessity of a post-lockdown increase in capacity by more than 50%.

Conclusions:
The availability of the most affected procedures will never achieve the pre-pandemic state without increasing the hypothetical surgical capacity of urological procedures that were suspended due to lockdowns caused by the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. These procedures require taking special steps to unblock the urological healthcare system and allow patients continuous access to treatment.